5 Surprising Realities Behind The Canadian Army Ranking In The World (2025 Update)

Despite its status as a G7 nation and a founding member of NATO, the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) often receives a surprisingly mid-tier ranking in global military power assessments. As of the latest Global Firepower (GFP) Index for 2025, Canada is ranked 28th out of 145 countries, holding a Power Index (PwrIndx) score of 0.5179. This position places the nation behind several less affluent countries, sparking intense debate among defense analysts and policymakers about Canada’s defense capabilities and its commitment to global security.

The current date is December 17, 2025, and the conversation around Canada’s military strength is more urgent than ever, driven by geopolitical shifts and a major defense policy update released in April 2024. This in-depth analysis breaks down the five key realities—from budget shortfalls to massive modernization projects—that explain the Canadian Army's global standing and its ambitious future trajectory.

Reality 1: The 2025 Global Ranking and the Personnel Challenge

The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF), which includes the Canadian Army, Royal Canadian Navy (RCN), and Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF), is consistently recognized for its highly professional, all-volunteer force. However, its global ranking is significantly tempered by its relatively small size and persistent recruitment and retention issues. The Global Firepower Index factors in over 60 variables, where sheer numbers often outweigh technological sophistication.

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• 2025 Global Firepower Ranking: 28th out of 145.
• Active Personnel Strength: The CAF maintains an active strength of approximately 63,500 to 68,000 personnel, with a Reserve Force of about 23,000 to 27,000.
• The Readiness Gap: A critical challenge highlighted in recent reports is combat readiness. In 2024, reports indicated that only about 58% of the CAF would be able to respond if called upon by NATO allies in a crisis, indicating a significant readiness gap due to personnel shortages and equipment maintenance issues.
• Topical Authority Entities: Canadian Armed Forces (CAF), Global Firepower Index, Active Personnel, Reserve Force, NATO, Combat Readiness.

While the quality of Canadian soldiers is world-class, the quantity is a major limiting factor, especially when compared to nations with conscription or larger populations that can field forces well over 100,000 active members.

Reality 2: The Game-Changing 2024 Defense Policy and Budget Surge

The most significant recent development impacting Canada’s future military ranking is the April 2024 Defence Policy Update, a clear signal of increased commitment to defense spending after years of criticism from NATO partners, particularly the United States. This policy aims to address the long-standing issue of underfunding.

• New Spending Commitment: The policy commits an additional $8.1 billion over the next five years, and a total of $73 billion over the next twenty years, to defense.
• NATO 2% Target: This increase is designed to move Canada closer to the NATO goal of spending 2% of GDP on defense. Canada’s military expenditure in 2024 stood at approximately US$29.3 billion, or about 1.3% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
• Strategic Focus: The new funding is heavily focused on three critical areas: protecting Canadian sovereignty, particularly in the Arctic; modernizing continental defense through NORAD; and enhancing the CAF’s ability to project force internationally.
• Topical Authority Entities: Defence Policy Update, Minister William Blair, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, NATO 2% Target, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Arctic Sovereignty, Continental Defence.

This massive, multi-decade investment is the single greatest factor poised to improve Canada’s standing in future military power indices, as it directly addresses the financial and equipment shortfalls that have historically depressed its ranking.

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Reality 3: Major Procurement Projects Underway (Air, Sea, and Land)

Canada’s ranking is often penalized by its aging equipment fleet. However, several multi-billion-dollar procurement projects are now moving forward, promising to revolutionize the capabilities of the Royal Canadian Navy (RCN) and the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF).

RCAF Modernization

The Royal Canadian Air Force is undergoing its most significant recapitalization in decades, focusing on next-generation air superiority and surveillance.

• F-35A Fighter Jets: The procurement of 88 F-35A Lightning II fifth-generation fighter jets is underway, replacing the aging CF-18 Hornets. This acquisition is critical for maintaining air superiority and interoperability with key allies.
• P-8A Poseidon: Canada is also acquiring 16 P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft to replace the CP-140 Auroras, significantly boosting the RCN's anti-submarine warfare and long-range surveillance capabilities.

RCN and Land Forces

The naval and land forces are also seeing major investment, particularly in fleet replacement and electronic warfare.

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• Canadian Surface Combatant (CSC): This is the largest and most complex procurement in Canadian history, aimed at delivering up to 15 advanced warships to replace the current fleet of 12 Halifax-class frigates and the aging Iroquois-class destroyers.
• NORAD Modernization: A $38.6 billion commitment is dedicated to modernizing the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) over two decades, including the development of over-the-horizon radar systems to detect threats earlier.
• Canadian Army Modernization: The Army is pursuing its *Inflection Point 2025* plan, focusing on improving mobility, force protection, and electronic warfare capabilities, such as the CF Land Electronic Warfare Modernization project.
• Topical Authority Entities: F-35A Lightning II, CF-18 Hornets, P-8A Poseidon, CP-140 Aurora, Anti-Submarine Warfare, Canadian Surface Combatant (CSC), Halifax-class frigates, NORAD, Over-the-Horizon Radar, Inflection Point 2025.

Reality 4: The Strategic Importance of Continental and Arctic Defense

Canada's military focus differs significantly from many other high-ranking nations. Its primary strategic priority is not global power projection, but the defense of its vast territory and shared North American airspace.

The geopolitical reality of having the world’s longest coastline and a shared border with the world’s foremost military power (the United States) shapes the CAF’s mission. The increasing militarization of the Arctic by Russia and China has made Arctic sovereignty a top national security priority. The majority of the new defense spending is earmarked for enhancing capabilities in the North, including new surveillance technologies and infrastructure to support forward operations.

This focus means that while Canada may rank lower in metrics like total battle tanks or aircraft carriers (it has none), it ranks highly in specialized capabilities like Arctic patrol, joint NORAD operations, and peacekeeping contributions, which are not always weighted equally in raw military indices.

Reality 5: The Future Trajectory—A Top 20 Power is Possible

The current ranking of 28th reflects a military in transition, still heavily reliant on aging equipment and struggling with personnel shortages. However, the forward-looking indicators suggest a significant upward shift in the next decade.

The April 2024 Defence Policy Update, combined with the delivery of advanced platforms like the F-35A and P-8A, will fundamentally change the CAF's power projection and defensive capabilities. The commitment to NORAD modernization also solidifies Canada’s vital role in North American security architecture, making it an indispensable partner to the United States.

As the new $73 billion in funding translates into new ships, aircraft, and fully staffed units, defense analysts predict that Canada has a clear path to re-entering the top 25, and potentially the top 20, of the Global Firepower Index within the next five to ten years. The challenge remains execution—successfully managing the complex procurement process and overcoming the persistent recruitment crisis to fully staff the modernized forces.