5 Reasons Why Egg Prices Are Skyrocketing And The Supply Crisis Continues In 2025

The humble egg is at the center of a complex and costly crisis that shows no signs of fully resolving, even as of December 18, 2025. Consumers are grappling with unprecedented price volatility and supply chain instability, driven by a perfect storm of biological threats, regulatory changes, and economic pressures. The question of "what is going on with the eggs" is no longer just about inflation; it is about the structural integrity of the entire poultry industry. The core of the issue stems from the relentless spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), coupled with significant shifts in production standards like new cage-free mandates. This combination has decimated the U.S. flock, reduced the number of egg-laying hens, and created a market where prices are expected to remain high, potentially breaking new records throughout 2025.

The Persistent Threat of HPAI: The Bird Flu Devastation

The single greatest factor destabilizing the egg market is the ongoing outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), commonly known as "bird flu." This disease has proven to be a persistent, rather than sporadic, threat to commercial poultry operations since 2022.

The Massive Reduction in Egg-Laying Hens

The HPAI virus is devastating because it requires the culling of entire flocks to prevent its spread, leading to a massive reduction in the number of productive birds. Through January 2025, the U.S. egg industry has seen an estimated 8% fewer egg-laying hens compared to previous years. This substantial supply shock is the primary driver of the current crisis. The sheer scale of the losses has created a severe supply shortage, which directly translates into higher costs at the grocery store. The ongoing nature of the outbreak means producers are struggling to rebuild their flocks fast enough to meet consistent consumer demand.

Economic Fallout: Billions in Lost Value

The economic impact of the HPAI-driven egg shortages has been staggering. Estimates suggest that the supply shock cost American consumers approximately $14.5 billion in 2024-2025 alone. This figure highlights the profound effect that a biological threat can have on a staple food commodity. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is forecasting that these consumer costs could rise another 20% in 2025 as the bird flu continues to devastate commercial flocks.

Record-Breaking Egg Prices and Market Volatility

The reduction in the supply of shell eggs has inevitably led to extreme price volatility. While wholesale prices may fluctuate, retail egg prices have surged to unprecedented levels, leaving consumers struggling to digest soaring food costs.

The Price Forecast for 2025

Experts and market analysts are warning that egg prices could break more records in 2025. The combination of a reduced flock size, increased operational costs for biosecurity, and general supply chain breakdowns is creating an environment where high prices are the new normal. For consumers, this means reevaluating budgets and potentially seeking out cost-cutting alternatives in recipes.

Beyond Bird Flu: Supply Chain and Consolidation

While HPAI is the main culprit, other systemic issues are contributing to the soaring egg prices. Global supply chain breakdowns, general economic pressures, and the increasing consolidation within the egg industry itself have all played a role in driving prices to their current unprecedented levels. The market is highly sensitive to any disruption, making price stability a distant memory.

The Impact of New Cage-Free Egg Laws

Adding another layer of complexity to the egg crisis are new state-level regulations mandating cage-free egg production. Several states have passed laws requiring all eggs sold within their borders to come from cage-free systems, which fundamentally changes the infrastructure and cost of production.

The Cost of Compliance

Transitioning from conventional caged systems to cage-free environments requires significant capital investment for producers, including new barns, equipment, and changes to flock management. These higher operational costs are inevitably passed on to the consumer, further contributing to the overall rise in egg prices. The convergence of HPAI losses and the expense of cage-free compliance creates a double whammy for the industry and the consumer.

Public Health Concerns: The Threat of Salmonella Outbreaks

Beyond the issues of supply and price, 2025 has also seen a renewed focus on public health concerns related to egg safety. Multiple Salmonella outbreak investigations and recalls have been linked to eggs throughout the year.

Recent Recalls and Investigations

In August 2025, Country Eggs, LLC recalled large brown cage-free "sunshine yolks" or "omega-3 golden yolks" eggs due to Salmonella concerns. Earlier in the year, another batch of Vega Farm eggs was recalled in December 2025, linked to 63 salmonella-related illnesses. While a June 2025 outbreak investigation by the FDA was completed, these incidents underscore the constant need for stringent food safety protocols within the egg supply chain. The presence of Salmonella outbreaks adds pressure on producers and regulators, potentially increasing inspection and compliance costs, which can further impact the final price of eggs.

Future Outlook: When Will Egg Prices Stabilize?

The outlook for the US egg industry in 2025 suggests continued challenges and volatility. While the industry is working hard to recover its flock size and implement enhanced biosecurity measures, the persistent nature of HPAI means that future outbreaks are a constant risk. The key entities driving the market—the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), state cage-free egg laws, and the overall supply chain crisis—are all factors that will keep the market volatile. Consumers should anticipate that the era of inexpensive eggs may be over for the foreseeable future, as the industry adapts to new biological threats and higher ethical standards of production. The current situation demands that both consumers and food service industries explore alternative ingredients and adjust their purchasing habits in response to the "new normal" of the egg market.