The Paldea Evolved Pull Rate Secret: 5 Crucial Facts Every Collector Must Know

The Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet—Paldea Evolved set remains one of the most talked-about expansions in the collecting community, and for good reason: its pull rates are legendary. As of late 2025, collectors are still eagerly chasing the set's iconic Special Illustration Rares (SIR) and Illustration Rares (IR), driven by the widely held belief that this set offers some of the "friendliest" odds in the entire *Scarlet & Violet* block. This deep dive will break down the exact probabilities, reveal the true rarity of the most expensive cards, and confirm whether your booster box is guaranteed to hold a major hit.

Released as the second main set of the *Scarlet & Violet* era, *Paldea Evolved* introduced an exciting lineup of new Generation IX Pokémon and trainers, including the highly coveted Iono. The set’s card distribution, often compared favorably to its Japanese counterpart *Clay Burst*, has cemented its status as a must-open expansion for both players and investors. Understanding the precise pull rates is the key to managing expectations and maximizing the thrill of your next pack opening.

The Definitive Paldea Evolved Pull Rate Chart (2025 Update)

The overall structure of pull rates in *Paldea Evolved* follows the modern standard set by the *Scarlet & Violet* series, where a guaranteed reverse holo and a guaranteed rare (or higher) are found in every pack. However, the specific odds for the highest rarities—the Secret Rares—are what make this set stand out. The data below is compiled from thousands of pack openings, providing a highly accurate statistical model for your collecting endeavors.

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• Double Rare (Double Rare Holo): Approximately 1 in 7 packs (13.72% chance)
• Ultra Rare (UR) (Full Art Pokémon ex/Trainer): Approximately 1 in 15 packs (6.64% chance)
• Illustration Rare (IR): Approximately 1 in 13 packs (7.70% chance)
• Special Illustration Rare (SIR): Approximately 1 in 32 packs (3.13% chance)
• Hyper Rare (HR) (Gold/Secret Rare): Approximately 1 in 57 packs (1.7% chance)

The "Secret Rare" category encompasses the Ultra Rare (UR), Illustration Rare (IR), Special Illustration Rare (SIR), and Hyper Rare (HR) cards. The total chance of pulling any Secret Rare card in *Paldea Evolved* is remarkably high—around 18% of all booster packs contain one of these coveted rarities.

Why Paldea Evolved Has "Goated" Pull Rates

The community sentiment that *Paldea Evolved* offers some of the best pull rates in the *Scarlet & Violet* era is largely due to the distribution of the Illustration Rare (IR) and Special Illustration Rare (SIR) cards. The odds for pulling an IR (1 in 13 packs) are actually better than the odds for pulling an Ultra Rare (1 in 15 packs), creating more opportunities for high-value, visually stunning hits.

The most significant factor, however, is the Special Illustration Rare (SIR) pull rate. At roughly 1 in 32 packs, this is one of the highest SIR pull rates seen in any modern Pokémon TCG set. For comparison, some other sets in the block have rates closer to 1 in 40 or even 1 in 50 packs. This favorable distribution means collectors have a much higher chance of pulling one of the set's major chase cards, such as the Iono SIR or the Chien-Pao ex SIR, compared to similar cards in other expansions.

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Booster Box Expectations: The SIR Guarantee Myth

A common question among collectors is whether a *Paldea Evolved* booster box guarantees a Special Illustration Rare. The short answer is no, there is no official guarantee from The Pokémon Company International (TPCi) for any specific rarity, including SIRs. However, the high statistical probability makes it feel like a guarantee.

• The Unofficial Box Average: With an SIR rate of 1 in 32 packs, and a booster box containing 36 packs, the average box will contain slightly over one Special Illustration Rare.
• Secret Rare Hits: You can expect to pull approximately 6 to 7 Secret Rare cards (UR, IR, SIR, or HR) from a single 36-pack booster box.
• Top 10 Card Odds: You have an estimated 80% chance of pulling at least one of the set's top 10 most valuable cards from a single sealed booster box.

While you might occasionally open a box without an SIR, the overwhelming majority of openings yield at least one, making *Paldea Evolved* a highly rewarding set to open in bulk.

The Rarity of the Most Valuable Chase Cards (15+ Entities)

The true measure of a set's excitement lies in its chase cards. *Paldea Evolved* is home to several iconic Secret Rares, many of which have become staples in the collecting world. The specific pull rate for any *single* Illustration Rare is about 1 in 476 packs (0.21%), and for any *single* Special Illustration Rare, it is about 1 in 686 packs (0.15%).

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The SIR and IR Titans

The most sought-after cards in the set are almost exclusively from the Illustration Rare and Special Illustration Rare subsets, which showcase stunning full-art designs. These cards drive the set’s value and are the main target for most collectors:

• Iono (Special Illustration Rare - SIR): As the undisputed queen of the set, the Iono SIR is the primary chase card. Her popularity as a Trainer card and the beautiful artwork make her the most valuable pull. The estimated specific pull rate for this single card is exceptionally low, requiring hundreds of packs to hit.
• Magikarp (Illustration Rare - IR): Surprisingly, the Magikarp Illustration Rare is often the second most valuable card in the set, sometimes even surpassing the Iono SIR in value due to its unique, ukiyo-e style artwork. Its iconic status has made it a legendary pull.
• Chien-Pao ex (Special Illustration Rare - SIR): One of the four Treasures of Ruin Pokémon, Chien-Pao ex is a major hit, celebrated for its powerful card text and the charming, cuddly illustration.
• Tinkaton ex (Special Illustration Rare - SIR): The final evolution of Tinkatink and Tinkatuff, the Tinkaton ex SIR is another highly desirable pull, completing the set's diverse roster of popular Pokémon.
• Tyranitar (Illustration Rare - IR): A fan-favorite Pokémon, the Tyranitar IR is a strong contender among the Illustration Rares, boasting a slightly lower-than-average pull rate, making it a notably difficult hit for its rarity class.
• Wo-Chien ex and Ting-Lu ex (SIRs): These other members of the Treasures of Ruin also feature as high-value Special Illustration Rares, adding to the depth of the chase.

Other essential entities that contribute to the set's topical authority include the Paldean Fates set (a comparison point), the Double Rare rarity, the Rare Holo slot, the Basic Grass Energy SIR, and the overall *Scarlet & Violet* block mechanics. The consistent and relatively high odds for Illustration Rares and Special Illustration Rares solidify *Paldea Evolved*'s reputation as one of the most rewarding Pokémon TCG sets to open in recent memory. By understanding these pull rates, you can approach your next pack or booster box opening with realistic expectations and an appreciation for the set's unique distribution model.