The 15 Hottest Black Friday Toy Deals Of 2025: Ultimate Guide To Scoring 70% Off LEGO, Barbie, And STEM Kits

The 2025 holiday shopping season is officially kicking off early, and the most aggressive discounts are expected in the toy aisle. With Black Friday 2025 scheduled for November 28th, shoppers can anticipate major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target to launch their sales events weeks in advance, offering deep price cuts of up to 70% on this year's most coveted gifts. This comprehensive guide, updated for the current shopping cycle, provides expert predictions on the must-buy deals, essential shopping strategies, and the specific toys you need to watch to maximize your savings.

The key to winning Black Friday this year is preparation. The hottest toys—especially those from major brands like LEGO, Barbie, and popular STEM kits—will sell out fast. By focusing on the expected deal trends and retailer-specific strategies outlined below, you can secure the top-rated toys of the 2025 holiday season without paying full price. Don't wait for the official Black Friday doorbusters; the best "Early Black Friday" deals will start dropping in early November.

The Hottest Toy Trends and Must-Watch Brands for Black Friday 2025

The 2025 toy landscape is defined by a mix of classic nostalgia, high-tech educational play, and immersive collectibles. Retailers are battling it out with massive discounts on these high-demand categories to draw in holiday shoppers. Expect to see the deepest price drops on items featured in the annual Walmart Toy Catalog and Target Black Friday Ad.

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1. The STEM and Educational Toy Revolution

Educational toys and kits that promote skills in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) continue to be a dominant trend. These items are often higher-priced, making the Black Friday discount a crucial buying window. Look for specific examples of deep discounts on these products:

• Magnetic Tiles: Expect a major price drop on brands like PicassoTiles or Magna-Tiles. A 101-piece PicassoTiles magnetic tile set is predicted to drop to around $37, a massive saving that makes these educational building blocks highly accessible.
• Robotics and Coding Kits: The Thames & Kosmos My Robotic Pet: Coding Chameleon STEM Kit is a prime example of a high-value item that could see a 25% discount, potentially dropping from $55 to $40.
• Snap Circuits: Deals on Snap Circuits Light Electronics kits are highly anticipated, offering hands-on learning for future engineers.

2. Iconic Brand Doorbusters: LEGO, Barbie, and Hot Wheels

No Black Friday is complete without massive savings on the world's most popular toy brands. These are the classic doorbusters that drive traffic, and you can expect retailers to use them as loss leaders with discounts up to 70% off.

• LEGO Sets: Deals are expected across all major lines. Look for discounts on retiring sets and popular themes like LEGO Star Wars, LEGO Harry Potter, LEGO Marvel, and Duplo sets for younger builders, with some smaller sets starting as low as $8. The official LEGO Shop will also offer exclusive sets and gifts with purchase during their Insiders Weekend.
• Barbie Dolls: Following the continued cultural phenomenon, Barbie deals will be aggressive. The highly collectible 2025 Holiday Barbie Doll Collection is predicted to be on sale for approximately $34.99, a 29% reduction from its original price. Look for deals on playsets and fashion dolls as well.
• Hot Wheels: Vehicle collectors and track enthusiasts will find massive savings. A Hot Wheels Track Set with 4 Loops is expected to be discounted to $30 (down from $54). Walmart is known for offering Hot Wheels Monster Truck 5-Car Sets at nearly 80% off.

Black Friday 2025 Retailer-Specific Toy Shopping Strategies

The three retail giants—Amazon, Walmart, and Target—each have a distinct strategy for their toy deals. Understanding these differences is key to securing the best price on your specific shopping list.

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Walmart: The Deep Discount Destination

Walmart's strategy revolves around massive, traffic-driving discounts, often branded as "Deals Events." They are the best place to find the deepest cuts on budget-friendly items and major volume purchases.

• Focus: Volume and Value. Look for the lowest price points on popular children's brands like Hot Wheels, Disney, and major electronics for kids.
• Key Entities to Watch: The annual Walmart Top Toys List (50 must-have gifts) and their exclusive Hot Wheels and Monster Jam sets.
• Pro Tip: Walmart often runs multiple "Deals Events" throughout November, starting early. Don't wait for the Friday itself.

Target: The Gift Card and Exclusive Set Hub

Target's Black Friday toy deals are known for a strong mix of percentage-off discounts (often 40% or more) and valuable gift card promotions. Their free standard shipping for orders over $35 is also a major draw.

• Focus: Percentage Off and Gift Card Bonuses. Expect deals like "Spend $50, Get a $10 Target Gift Card" on specific toy categories.
• Key Entities to Watch: Exclusive collaboration items and deals on brands like Melissa & Doug, Squishmallows, and high-quality pet toys (e.g., Bark Box Dog Toys).
• Pro Tip: Target is excellent for stacking savings, so use your Target RedCard for an extra 5% off on top of the Black Friday price.

Amazon: The Early and Extended Sale Leader

Amazon starts its Black Friday deals earlier than almost anyone and extends them through Cyber Monday. Their sheer volume of inventory means they will have deals on nearly every toy entity imaginable, from mainstream to niche.

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• Focus: Variety and Early Access. Amazon is the best place to find deals on specific LEGO sets, niche STEM kits, and collectible action figures.
• Key Entities to Watch: The "Amazon 2025 Toy List," which features nostalgic favorites and a wide array of learning toys. Look for deals on Thames & Kosmos and PicassoTiles.
• Pro Tip: Monitor the "Lightning Deals" section for limited-time, deep-discount offers on high-demand toys that sell out in minutes.

Your 15 Black Friday Toy Deal Predictions for 2025

Based on historical data, retailer trends, and the hottest toys of the 2025 holiday season, here is a list of the specific deals you can expect to see and should prioritize.

1. 40% Off Select LEGO Sets: Look for deals on mid-range sets from Star Wars and Harry Potter.
2. $37 for 101-Piece PicassoTiles Magnetic Set: A nearly 50% discount on a foundational STEM toy.
3. 29% Off 2025 Holiday Barbie Doll: A guaranteed sale on the year's most collectible doll.
4. Up to 50% Off Delta Children Play Furniture: Deals on items like the Delta Children MySize Dollhouse and Deluxe Modern Kitchen.
5. $30 Hot Wheels Track Set: A major discount on a large-scale track set, a guaranteed hit for kids.
6. Buy One, Get One 50% Off Board Games: A perennial favorite deal at Target and Walmart.
7. 30% Off Melissa & Doug Activity Kits: Discounts on arts, crafts, and wooden toys.
8. Deep Discounts on Squishmallows: Expect significant percentage-off deals on the popular plush collectibles.
9. $40 Thames & Kosmos Coding Kit: A high-value STEM item at a major price cut.
10. Up to 70% Off Action Figures: Look for deals on Marvel, Star Wars, and other movie-related collectibles.
11. Exclusive Fat Brain Toys Discounts: Specialized deals on unique, screen-free, and immersive toys like the Magshuto Stunt Park.
12. $5 Target Gift Card with $30 Toy Purchase: A common and stackable promotion at Target.
13. 80% Off Hot Wheels Monster Truck 5-Packs: A classic Walmart doorbuster.
14. L.O.L. Surprise! Dolls and Playsets: Expect a 30-40% discount on the latest collections.
15. 25% Off Select Video Games: Deals on family-friendly titles for Nintendo Switch and other consoles.

Maximizing Your Savings: Early Black Friday and Cyber Monday

The concept of "Black Friday" is now a month-long sales event. To score the best deals on high-demand toys, you must start early and extend your shopping through Cyber Monday.

Early Black Friday (Starting Early November): This is when the initial, deep discounts on specific items—like the PicassoTiles or Hot Wheels sets—will appear. Retailers use these early sales to manage inventory and lock in early holiday shoppers. If a toy is on a "Top Toys" list, buy it immediately if you see a 30% or greater discount.

Cyber Monday (December 1st, 2025): While Black Friday weekend focuses on physical doorbusters, Cyber Monday is the final push, often featuring the best deals on electronics, video games, and online-exclusive toy bundles. If you missed a LEGO set or a specific STEM kit on Friday, check Amazon and Target's online stores on Monday for a potential second chance. The deals are often comparable, but inventory may be lower.

By focusing on the major brands (LEGO, Barbie, Hot Wheels), high-value categories (STEM, collectibles), and leveraging the specific strategies of Amazon, Walmart, and Target, you are perfectly positioned to conquer the 2025 Black Friday toy deals and get the best gifts for the lowest prices.