The 10 Films Guaranteed To Dominate The 2025 Best Picture Oscar Race

As of December 2025, the race for the 97th Academy Awards Best Picture nomination slate has solidified into a tight field of critically acclaimed, festival-winning, and highly buzzed-about films, all released throughout the 2024 calendar year. This year's competition is marked by a strong showing from independent cinema, international features, and a few blockbuster sequels that managed to transcend their genre origins to achieve true cinematic prestige. The voting body of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) has a wealth of diverse material to choose from, making the final ten nominees one of the most compelling lists in years.

The films currently leading the conversation for a coveted Best Picture nomination at the 2025 Oscars represent a fascinating blend of political thrillers, intimate dramas, and ambitious period pieces. The early awards season buzz, driven by major festival wins at Cannes and Venice, points toward a dramatic and unpredictable final ballot. Here are the top contenders and dark horses that are all but guaranteed a spot in the final 10-film lineup.

The Definitive List of 2025 Best Picture Frontrunners

The 97th Academy Awards ceremony promises a showdown between established auteurs and rising independent voices. The films listed below have generated the most sustained critical praise and industry buzz, positioning them as the strongest contenders for the 2025 Best Picture nomination.

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• Anora
• Conclave
• The Brutalist
• Emilia Pérez
• A Real Pain
• Dune: Part Two
• Wicked: Part One
• A Complete Unknown
• Sing Sing
• Gladiator 2

The Unstoppable Critical Triumphs: Festival Winners and Indie Darlings

The core of the 2025 Best Picture race is anchored by films that dominated the international film festival circuit, proving that strong critical consensus remains the most reliable indicator of Oscar success. These films have secured their status as frontrunners through sheer artistic merit and powerful storytelling.

Anora (NEON)

Directed, written, produced, and edited by indie maestro Sean Baker, Anora is arguably the most critically celebrated film of the year. The film stars Mikey Madison as Anora "Ani" Mikheeva, a young sex worker in Brooklyn whose life takes a dramatic turn when she impulsively marries the son of a Russian oligarch. Its win of the prestigious Palme d'Or at the 2024 Cannes Film Festival makes it a historic and undeniable contender. Baker's signature blend of gritty realism and genuine heart has resonated deeply with critics, making it a powerful force in the Best Picture, Director, and Actress categories.

Conclave (Focus Features)

Director Edward Berger, fresh off his Oscar success with All Quiet on the Western Front, returns with the political thriller Conclave. Based on the Robert Harris novel, the film is a tense, claustrophobic drama centered around the selection of a new Pope after the death of the sitting pontiff. The all-star cast is a major draw for the Academy, featuring powerhouse performances from Ralph Fiennes as Cardinal Lawrence, Stanley Tucci as Cardinal Bellini, and Isabella Rossellini as Sister Agnes. Its timely themes of faith, power, and secrecy make it a formidable contender for a Best Picture nomination.

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The Brutalist (A24)

Brady Corbet's epic period drama, co-written with Mona Fastvold, is a sprawling, ambitious immigrant story set in post-war America. The film follows László, a Holocaust survivor and architect, as he chases his architectural dreams, battling betrayal and ambition alongside his wife. Featuring a stellar ensemble cast including Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, and Guy Pearce, The Brutalist is the kind of massive, historical drama that the Academy often embraces. Its high Rotten Tomatoes score and late-year release position it perfectly for a strong awards run.

International and Genre Contenders: Expanding the Oscar Landscape

The modern Academy is more international and diverse than ever, creating space for films that break traditional molds. Two major international features and a highly anticipated sequel are poised to shake up the final Best Picture ballot.

Emilia Pérez (Pathé)

Jacques Audiard's Spanish-language musical crime film, Emilia Pérez, is a true awards season anomaly. The film follows a lawyer who helps a Mexican cartel leader undergo gender-affirming surgery to escape the law and become a woman. The bold, operatic nature of the film, coupled with its sensational reception at Cannes, has made it a must-see. The cast, including Karla Sofía Gascón, Selena Gomez, Zoe Saldaña, and Adriana Paz, collectively won the Best Actress award at Cannes, a unique feat that signals massive Academy support.

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A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures)

Actor-turned-writer/director Jesse Eisenberg's sophomore feature, A Real Pain, is a deeply personal and often hilarious comedy-drama. Starring Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin, the film chronicles the journey of two mismatched cousins who travel to Poland to honor their grandmother's memory. The film has been praised for its sharp writing and the electric chemistry between its leads as they confront their own unresolved tensions against the backdrop of the Holocaust's impact on the region.

Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Director Denis Villeneuve's epic sequel, Dune: Part Two, is the major blockbuster exception that could secure a Best Picture nomination. While the first film earned 10 nominations and six wins, the second installment has been widely praised as a superior cinematic achievement. Its technical brilliance across cinematography, sound, and score, combined with its massive box office success, makes it a powerful candidate to fill one of the blockbuster slots, similar to how Oppenheimer and Avatar: The Way of Water succeeded in prior years. The film's expansive world-building and star-studded cast, including Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya, give it undeniable industry support.

Dark Horses and Late-Breaking Contenders for the 2025 Oscars

Every year, a few films emerge late in the season to secure a nomination, often driven by a passionate campaign or a last-minute critical surge. While not guaranteed, these films are strong possibilities to round out the 10-film Best Picture list.

• Sing Sing: Starring Colman Domingo, this film has generated immense buzz for its powerful performances and moving true story about a theater troupe in a maximum-security prison. Domingo's performance is a strong contender for Best Actor.
• A Complete Unknown: The Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet is a major late-season entry. Musical biopics often perform well, and Chalamet's star power will ensure high visibility.
• The Wild Robot: The animated feature from DreamWorks is a critical darling in a category that occasionally sees a breakthrough into the main Best Picture race, following the path of films like Up and Toy Story 3.

The 97th Academy Awards nominations will be announced in early 2026, and until then, the race remains fluid. However, with a slate of films featuring the directorial genius of Sean Baker, Edward Berger, and Jacques Audiard, and starring talent like Mikey Madison, Ralph Fiennes, and Adrien Brody, the 2025 Best Picture category is shaping up to be one of the most competitive and artistically rich in recent memory. Industry insiders are closely watching how the various guilds and critics groups vote in the coming months, which will ultimately confirm which of these frontrunners secure their place on the final ballot.