5 Scientific Reasons Why The La Palma 'Megatsunami' Is Incredibly Unlikely (2025 Update)

The chilling idea of a "La Palma Tsunami" or "megatsunami" has captivated and terrified the public for decades, most recently sensationalized by the 2021 eruption of the Cumbre Vieja volcano and subsequent disaster films. As of this current date, December 10, 2025, the scientific consensus remains clear: the catastrophic, trans-Atlantic wave scenario is highly improbable, if not impossible. The original hypothesis, which suggested a massive, single-block collapse of the volcano's western flank, has been largely debunked by two decades of modern geological and geodetic research. This deep dive explores the latest scientific updates on the Cumbre Vieja volcano and why experts are confident that the world is not facing an imminent, civilization-ending wave from the Canary Islands.

The Cumbre Vieja volcanic ridge on La Palma, one of Spain’s Canary Islands, is one of the most active volcanoes in the archipelago. Its 2021 eruption, known as the Tajogaite eruption, brought the megatsunami hypothesis back into the global spotlight. However, the reality of volcanic flank collapse is far more complex and far less dramatic than the doomsday predictions suggest. New research provides critical context, focusing on the slow, fragmented nature of potential landslides and the extremely low recurrence rate of such large-scale events.

The La Palma Megatsunami Hypothesis: A Brief History

The "La Palma stunami" concept originated from a 1999 paper by Steven Ward and Simon Day, which modeled a worst-case scenario: a sudden, massive collapse of the entire western flank of Cumbre Vieja.

Key Details of the Original Scenario

• The Event: A catastrophic, single-block landslide of an estimated 500 cubic kilometers of rock plunging into the North Atlantic Ocean.
• The Wave: Initial models suggested a wave possibly 2,000 feet (600 meters) high near the Canary Islands, which could still be 150 feet (45 meters) high upon landfall in the Americas, particularly the East Coast of the United States.
• The Trigger: The collapse was hypothesized to be triggered by magma intrusion during a major volcanic eruption, which would destabilize the flank.

While the study was a valid piece of scientific modeling based on specific, extreme parameters, it quickly became a source of widespread media sensationalism, overshadowing the geological nuances and the low probability of the event.

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5 Scientific Reasons the Megatsunami is Not an Imminent Threat

Modern volcanology, geophysics, and new tsunami modeling have provided overwhelming evidence that the original worst-case scenario is highly unlikely. The following points represent the current scientific consensus, updated based on post-2021 eruption data and recent studies.

1. The Collapse Mechanism is Fragmented, Not Coherent

The most significant flaw in the original megatsunami model is the assumption of a single, massive, and coherent block of rock sliding into the ocean.

• Geological Reality: Experts now believe that any future flank collapse would occur in a piecemeal fashion, involving multiple, smaller, and slower submarine landslides over an extended period.
• Impact on Tsunami: A fragmented, slower collapse disperses the energy release, meaning the resulting waves would be much smaller and less destructive on a trans-oceanic scale. The primary threat would be localized to the Canary Islands themselves, with waves reaching 5–100 meters high near the archipelago, not 150 feet high across the Atlantic.

2. Extremely Low Recurrence Rate

Geological records, which analyze volcaniclastic turbidites (sediment deposits from ancient landslides) on the Madeira Abyssal Plain, show that large-volume flank collapses are exceedingly rare events in the Canary Islands.

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• The Time Scale: The estimated recurrence rate for collapses of the scale needed to generate a megatsunami is approximately one every 100,000 years, or even less frequently.
• Stability Over Time: The Cumbre Vieja ridge has been active for thousands of years, and while it has experienced flank movement, there is no geological evidence showing a catastrophic collapse in its recent history.

3. Continuous Geodetic Monitoring Provides Early Warning

La Palma is one of the most intensely monitored volcanoes in the world. Modern geodetic monitoring systems track even the slightest ground deformation, providing a critical layer of safety.

• Current Data: New descending radar interferometric data and other geodetic studies are constantly analyzing the shallow flank deformation and stability of the Cumbre Vieja.
• Deformation vs. Collapse: While ground deformation studies *do* suggest the western flank is under stress and showing volcano-tectonic movement, this movement is slow and does not indicate an imminent, rapid collapse. Scientists would detect any significant acceleration in movement long before a catastrophic failure could occur.

4. The Tsunami Risk is Primarily Local (Near-Field)

Recent numerical modeling focuses on realistic scenarios, which confirm that the most significant tsunami threat is to the immediate vicinity of the Canary Islands.

• Near-Field Tsunami: In the event of a significant submarine landslide, the waves could be substantial—up to hundreds of meters—but would dissipate rapidly with distance. The waves would primarily impact the coasts of La Palma, El Hierro, and La Gomera.
• Trans-Atlantic Dissipation: The vast distance across the North Atlantic Ocean and the physics of wave propagation ensure that by the time any wave reached the East Coast of the US, its energy would be dramatically reduced, posing a minimal threat compared to the original model.

5. Topography and Internal Structure Provide Stability

The internal structure of the volcano and the surrounding topography play a crucial role in stabilizing the flank, contrary to the simplified models.

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• Structural Integrity: The interplay between complex tensile fracturing and the volcano's topography adds further evidence that the structure is more robust than initially feared.
• Expert Opinion: Leading experts in landslide mechanics, such as Professor Dave Petley, have publicly stated that the megatsunami scenario is "incredibly unlikely". The scientific community has largely moved away from the sensationalized narrative.

Conclusion: Separating Science from Sensationalism

The "La Palma stunami" remains a compelling piece of disaster folklore, fueled by initial scientific modeling and amplified by popular culture. However, the latest, most current scientific research—including post-2021 eruption analysis—firmly places the catastrophic megatsunami in the realm of fiction.

While Cumbre Vieja is an active volcano with a known risk of volcanic flank collapse and localized tsunamis, the threat to the North Atlantic is minimal. The combination of extremely low recurrence rates, fragmented collapse mechanisms, and advanced geodetic monitoring means that scientists are highly confident in the stability of the western flank for the foreseeable future, making the global megatsunami a myth of the 21st century.