The 5 Biggest Shocks And Sure Bets For The Academy Award Nominations 2025

The race for the 97th Academy Awards is officially in its final, frantic stretch, culminating in the highly anticipated nominations announcement in January 2025. As of this current date in December 2025, the film world is buzzing with early wins from major critics groups and film festivals, setting the stage for one of the most unpredictable Oscar seasons in recent memory. The eligibility window for films released between January 1, 2024, and December 31, 2024, has closed, and the Academy's 10,000+ members are now preparing to cast their final ballots for who will earn the coveted gold statue nominations. The key question remains: Will the established auteurs like Paul Thomas Anderson dominate, or will breakout performances from newcomers steal the spotlight?

The 2025 Oscar nominations are poised to deliver a mix of expected heavy-hitters and genuine surprises, reflecting a year of diverse and challenging cinema. From the sweeping historical epics to the deeply personal independent films, the competition for a Best Picture slot is incredibly fierce. Understanding the current momentum, which films are peaking at the perfect time, and the dark horses gaining traction is essential to predicting the final list of nominees.

Official Academy Award 2025 Timeline and Key Dates

The journey to the 97th Academy Awards is a rigorous, multi-month process, and having the official dates locked in is crucial for awards season observers. The ceremony itself is set to take place in early March, a slight shift that tightens the final voting window after the nominations are revealed.

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The most important date for film fans and industry professionals alike is the official nominations announcement. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) has confirmed the following key dates for the 97th Oscars season:

• Eligibility Period: January 1, 2024 – December 31, 2024
• Shortlists Announcement: Mid-December 2024 (for categories like International Feature Film, Documentary, and Original Song)
• Nominations Voting Period: Early January 2025
• Official Nominations Announcement: Thursday, January 23, 2025, at 5:30 a.m. PT
• Oscars Ceremony Date: Sunday, March 2, 2025

The live announcement on January 23rd will officially launch the final phase of the awards season, turning speculation into reality and cementing the frontrunners for the grand finale at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.

The Best Picture and Best Director Frontrunners: A Battle of Auteurs

The Best Picture race for the 2025 Oscars is shaping up to be a fascinating duel between established cinematic masters and critically acclaimed breakout voices. The consensus is building around several key titles that have dominated the early critics’ awards and festival circuits.

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Best Picture: The Top Tier Contenders

Currently, the film generating the most consistent and powerful buzz is Paul Thomas Anderson's latest, One Battle After Another (OBAA). This highly anticipated feature is seen as a strong contender not just for Best Picture, but for a high volume of nominations across the board, including technical categories and acting nods. It is the type of ambitious, character-driven epic that often resonates deeply with Academy voters.

Close behind is Brady Corbet’s architectural drama, The Brutalist, which has been praised for its structural beauty and a soulful lead performance by Adrien Brody. Another major player is Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, which is expected to be a major force in the race, especially for Director and Screenplay. Other strong contenders vying for one of the ten Best Picture slots include: Hamnet (directed by Chloe Zhao), the political thriller Conclave, and the cinematic event of the year, Wicked, which could secure a nomination based on its sheer scale and technical mastery.

Key Best Picture Entities:

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• One Battle After Another (OBAA)
• The Brutalist
• Sinners
• Hamnet
• Conclave
• Wicked
• A Complete Unknown
• The Testament of Ann Lee
• Bugonia
• Weapons

Best Director: The Auteur Showdown

The Best Director category is expected to mirror the Best Picture race, with Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler leading the pack for their respective films. However, the Academy often splits its votes, making room for other acclaimed directors. Brady Corbet for The Brutalist is a serious threat, while Chloe Zhao (an Oscar winner for Nomadland) is highly favored for her work on Hamnet.

This category is a strong indicator of the Academy’s taste, and the inclusion of a director like Corbet or perhaps a surprise nomination for a director of a smaller, critically adored film would signal a push toward a younger generation of filmmakers.

The Explosive Acting Races: Best Actress and Best Actor Frontrunners

The acting categories are arguably the most dynamic and competitive this year, with several performances generating intense buzz from film festivals and early screenings. The Best Actress race, in particular, is being called a "wide open race" with no clear, undisputed winner yet.

Best Actress: A Tight, Unpredictable Contest

The Best Actress category is the most thrilling to track. Two performances have emerged with significant momentum: Demi Moore for her transformative role in the body horror film The Substance, and Mikey Madison, who also delivered a striking performance in a challenging role. Moore's performance is being hailed as a career-defining comeback that could secure her first-ever nomination.

Also firmly in the conversation are Jesse Buckley, a perennial favorite, and Renate Reinsve for the film Sentimental Value. Furthermore, the powerhouse vocal performance of Cynthia Erivo in the musical Wicked is a strong possibility, alongside the always-competitive Emma Stone and Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee.

Key Best Actress Entities:

• Demi Moore (The Substance)
• Mikey Madison
• Jesse Buckley
• Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
• Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
• Emma Stone
• Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee)
• Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)

Best Actor: Established Stars and Breakout Roles

In the Best Actor race, the competition is fierce but slightly more defined. Wagner Moura has been named by some major publications as a potential winner for his compelling performance, indicating a strong, critics-backed campaign. However, he faces stiff competition from two of Hollywood's biggest names.

Leonardo DiCaprio is a major frontrunner for his role in One Battle After Another (OBAA), a performance that is expected to be a pillar of the film’s overall nomination haul. Meanwhile, the young star Timothée Chalamet is generating significant buzz for his portrayal of a music icon in A Complete Unknown. The category is rounded out by the aforementioned Adrien Brody for The Brutalist, whose performance has been widely praised as soulful and towering.

Key Best Actor Entities:

• Wagner Moura
• Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
• Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
• Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
• Jacob Elordi (mentioned in early buzz)

As the final voting period approaches, the momentum is constantly shifting. The January 23rd nominations announcement will be the definitive moment that shapes the final narrative for the 97th Academy Awards.