5 Shocking Reasons Why The US Dollar (Dólar Hoy) Hit A New Low In Colombia On December 15, 2025

The US Dollar (USD) to Colombian Peso (COP) exchange rate is currently making headlines as it enters the final weeks of 2025, with the Colombian currency showing a remarkable appreciation trend. As of Monday, December 15, 2025, the official benchmark, known as the Tasa Representativa del Mercado (TRM), is set at a significantly lower rate than at the start of the year, a move that has major implications for importers, travelers, and investors alike. This dramatic shift is not a random event but the result of a confluence of powerful international and domestic economic forces that have propelled the Peso to become one of the best-performing currencies in the region this year. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the current dollar price, the critical factors causing this historic depreciation of the USD in Colombia, and the expert forecasts for what the exchange rate—the "dólar hoy"—will look like heading into 2026. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for anyone engaging with the Colombian economy, whether planning a trip, managing international business, or simply tracking personal finances.

Key Economic Indicators and Historical Context of the Dólar

The official exchange rate, or TRM, is the mandatory reference rate for all foreign currency transactions in Colombia. It is calculated daily by the Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia based on the operations of the previous day's market.

Official Dólar Hoy TRM: December 15, 2025

• Official TRM (Tasa Representativa del Mercado): $3,788.53 COP per 1 USD.
• Effective Date: Monday, December 15, 2025.
• Year-to-Date Performance (2025): The Colombian Peso has experienced a strong appreciation, with the dollar value decreasing by approximately 14.08% from its January 1, 2025, rate of $4,409.15 COP.
• Comparative Performance: The Colombian Peso has been one of the strongest currencies against the dollar throughout 2025, with a year-to-date appreciation of over 10%.

The Role of Key Financial Entities

The dollar's price is not arbitrary; it is a fluid reflection of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, heavily influenced by key institutions and economic entities. The Banco de la República (Banrep), Colombia's central bank, plays a critical role in monetary policy, including setting benchmark interest rates that directly affect the flow of foreign capital. The Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia is responsible for calculating and certifying the official TRM daily. Furthermore, the rates offered by individual Casas de Cambio (money exchange houses) for buying and selling cash dollars will always vary from the official TRM, reflecting their operating costs and market risk.

The 5 Key Factors Driving the Dólar's Price Today

The significant depreciation of the dollar and the corresponding strengthening of the Colombian Peso in late 2025 are the result of a complex interplay between global macroeconomic trends and specific domestic policies. These factors create the 'topical authority' of the current market.

1. The Interest Rate Differential (The Carry Trade)

One of the most powerful current drivers is the differential between the interest rates set by the Banco de la República in Colombia and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Colombia’s relatively high interest rates compared to the US incentivize foreign investors to bring their dollars into the country to invest in local bonds and financial assets—a strategy known as the "carry trade." This increased inflow of USD boosts the supply of dollars in the market, driving the price down and strengthening the Peso.

2. Global Oil Prices and Commodity Strength

Colombia is a major exporter of oil and other commodities. When global oil prices (such as Brent crude) are high or stable, the country receives a larger influx of US dollars from its exports. This increased dollar revenue strengthens the national reserves and increases the supply of USD in the local market, which directly contributes to the depreciation of the dollar's exchange rate against the Peso.

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3. US Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Decisions

Decisions made by the US Federal Reserve (The Fed) have an outsized impact on all emerging market currencies, including the Colombian Peso. When the Fed signals a potential pause or reduction in its interest rate hikes, it generally weakens the dollar globally. This makes dollar-denominated assets less attractive and encourages capital to flow back into emerging markets like Colombia, which further strengthens the Peso.

4. Foreign Investment and Capital Flows

A positive perception of Colombia's economic stability and investment climate attracts Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Increased capital flows into the country, whether for infrastructure projects, business expansion, or portfolio investment, mean more dollars are being converted into Pesos. This constant demand for the local currency is a fundamental factor in its appreciation and the resulting lower "dólar hoy" TRM.

5. Domestic Political and Economic Stability

Although international factors often dominate, domestic sentiment plays a crucial role. Periods of perceived political stability, coupled with consistent and credible macroeconomic policies from the government and the central bank, can reassure investors. Conversely, political uncertainty can cause capital flight, quickly weakening the Peso. The current strength suggests that the market is, for the moment, factoring in a degree of stability in the economic outlook.

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Expert Projections: What to Expect for the Dólar in 2026

While the current TRM of $3,788.53 COP is favorable for those buying dollars, the question for investors and businesses is whether this trend will continue. Expert projections for 2026 show a wide range, reflecting the high degree of uncertainty tied to global and domestic factors.

Projections from Major Financial Institutions

Forecasts for the end of 2026 vary significantly, highlighting the difficulty in predicting currency movements in an environment of shifting global monetary policy and commodity prices. These proyecciones dólar Colombia are critical for long-term financial planning:

• Bancolombia Projection: Forecasts an average dollar rate of approximately $4,103 COP for 2026.
• International Banks/Brokers: Some analysts predict a range of $3,780 to $4,200 COP for the first quarter of 2026.
• Long-Term Models: Other models suggest a potentially stronger Peso, with the USD/COP rate fluctuating between $3,139.22 and $3,267.36 by December 2026.

Key Entities and Scenarios for 2026

The future price of the dollar will be heavily dependent on a few key variables, which form the core of the topical authority surrounding this issue:

1. The Fed's Rate Path: If the US Federal Reserve begins to cut rates aggressively, the dollar will weaken further, potentially pushing the TRM toward the lower end of the projections.
2. Oil and Commodity Prices: A sustained period of high oil prices will continue to provide a floor of support for the Peso, keeping the dollar suppressed.
3. Domestic Reforms and Fiscal Health: The outcome of key government reforms and the country's ability to maintain fiscal discipline will heavily influence investor confidence and capital inflows.

In conclusion, while the dollar's current price (dólar hoy) presents a significant opportunity for Colombian consumers and travelers due to the Peso's remarkable strength in 2025, the market remains volatile. The strong appreciation is a testament to the powerful influence of the interest rate differential and commodity prices. However, the wide range of 2026 projections emphasizes the need for caution, as global economic shifts could quickly reverse the trend and push the tasa de cambio back towards the $4,000 COP mark.

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