The Top 5 Super Bowl MVP 2025 Candidates: Who Will Dominate In New Orleans?

The race for the Super Bowl LIX Most Valuable Player (MVP) award is heating up, with the championship game set for February 9, 2025, at the iconic Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. As of this current date in December 2025, the dust has settled on the 2024 NFL regular season, and the playoff picture is clear, setting the stage for the biggest individual prize in American football. This year's field is dominated by elite quarterbacks, but a historic season from a star running back has created a compelling non-QB narrative, making the early Super Bowl MVP odds a fascinating study in playoff potential and star power. The winner of the Super Bowl MVP award is almost always a member of the winning team, with quarterbacks taking home the hardware in 33 of the 58 previous Super Bowls, but 2025 could see a major upset.

The Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs, two teams that have defined the recent NFL landscape, are once again strong contenders, but the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions are also in the mix, bringing their own MVP-caliber players to the Super Bowl LIX stage. Our in-depth analysis breaks down the leading favorites, their 2024 season performance, and the dark horse candidates who could steal the spotlight on the biggest night in football.

The Top Tier: 5 Candidates with the Best Super Bowl LIX MVP Odds

The following five players represent the most likely winners based on recent performance, team success, and historical precedent. Quarterbacks (QBs) have a massive advantage, but a running back (RB) has surged into the conversation thanks to an exceptional 2024 campaign, making this one of the most unpredictable MVP races in years.

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1. Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback (Kansas City Chiefs)

Patrick Mahomes remains the perennial favorite for any major award, especially in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs’ superstar has already collected three Super Bowl MVP trophies, and his command of the offense is unmatched. Despite a 2024 regular season that saw a slight dip in efficiency, marred by a few too many turnovers, Mahomes' playoff performance remains elite.

• 2024 Season Stats (Regular Season + Playoffs): 4,607 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and a 94.5 passer rating.
• Key Narrative: Mahomes' ability to elevate his game in the postseason is legendary. His passer rating jumps to 100.7 in recent playoff runs, demonstrating his clutch performance when the Lombardi Trophy is on the line. If the Chiefs win, he is the overwhelming favorite to secure a record-tying fourth MVP award.
• LSI Keywords: Chiefs QB, clutch performance, playoff legend, four-time MVP.

2. Josh Allen, Quarterback (Buffalo Bills)

Josh Allen had an MVP-caliber 2024 season, leading the Buffalo Bills with a combination of elite passing and dynamic rushing. He was a likely finalist for the AP NFL MVP award for the 2024 season, solidifying his status as one of the game's top players.

• 2024 Season Stats: 3,731 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, only 6 interceptions, and a stellar 101.4 passer rating in 17 games.
• Key Narrative: Allen’s high-efficiency, low-turnover season gives him a strong case. If the Bills can finally break through the AFC Championship barrier and win Super Bowl LIX, Allen’s performance will undoubtedly be the catalyst. His dual-threat ability—passing and running—makes him a nightmare for defenses and a prime candidate for a massive statistical game.
• LSI Keywords: Bills quarterback, dual-threat QB, high-efficiency, AP MVP finalist.

3. Saquon Barkley, Running Back (Philadelphia Eagles)

Saquon Barkley's arrival in Philadelphia was historic, culminating in one of the most dominant seasons by a running back in recent memory. He is the single most likely non-quarterback to win the Super Bowl MVP.

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• 2024 Season Stats: A remarkable 2,005 rushing yards on 345 carries, 13 rushing touchdowns, plus 43 receptions for 278 yards.
• Key Narrative: If the Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl—a strong projection given their 26-8 record since 2024—and the victory is predicated on a dominant ground-and-pound attack, Barkley will be the MVP. A 150-yard, 2-touchdown performance would be almost impossible for voters to ignore, especially since he is reportedly favored over his own QB, Jalen Hurts, in some early odds.
• LSI Keywords: Eagles RB, historic season, dominant ground game, non-QB MVP.

4. Jalen Hurts, Quarterback (Philadelphia Eagles)

Despite the emergence of Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts remains a top contender, especially if the Eagles' victory comes via a balanced attack or a key passing moment. Hurts has the third-best odds to win the award, reflecting the team's overall success.

• 2024 Season Stats: 2,903 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and a 103.7 passer rating in 15 games.
• Key Narrative: Hurts has already been cited as a potential Super Bowl MVP winner in a projection, demonstrating his high ceiling. His dual-threat capabilities—combining a high passer rating with crucial running yards—mean he can rack up the necessary stats even if Barkley has a big day. If Hurts throws for over 300 yards and adds a rushing touchdown, the award is his.
• LSI Keywords: Eagles QB, dual-threat, high passer rating, Super Bowl contender.

5. Lamar Jackson, Quarterback (Baltimore Ravens)

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens are a constant threat in the AFC. While his 2024 regular season stats are less publicized, his playoff track record in the 2024 postseason was phenomenal.

• 2024 Playoff Stats: A scorching 122.5 passer rating, 429 yards, 4 touchdowns, and only 1 interception in 2 games.
• Key Narrative: Jackson’s ability to dominate a game with both his arm and his legs makes him an MVP threat on any given Sunday. If the Ravens make it to New Orleans, it will be because Jackson is playing at an elite level, and a game-breaking performance from him would easily earn the MVP trophy.
• LSI Keywords: Ravens QB, elite passer, dual-threat dominance, playoff surge.

The Dark Horse Contenders and Non-Quarterback Threats

While the focus is on the star quarterbacks, the Super Bowl MVP is occasionally won by a player who delivers a game-changing, unexpected performance. To achieve topical authority, an analysis of the "dark horse" candidates is essential, especially defensive players who can shift the momentum of a game.

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The Defensive Game-Wreckers

The MVP award has only gone to a defensive player ten times in history, but a dominant performance is often the key to victory. Defensive players who record multiple sacks, a crucial interception for a touchdown, or a forced fumble at a critical moment become instant favorites. A Philadelphia Eagles defender has been singled out by analysts as a surprise dark horse candidate for Super Bowl LIX MVP.

• Chris Jones (Chiefs Defensive Tackle): A dominant interior pass rusher. If he records two sacks, a forced fumble, and a handful of pressures that lead to turnovers, he could easily win.
• Haason Reddick (Eagles Edge Rusher): Known for his ability to generate pressure. A strip-sack for a defensive touchdown would put him squarely in the conversation.
• Darius Slay (Eagles Cornerback): A veteran playmaker. A pick-six or two interceptions against an elite QB like Mahomes or Allen would be a strong case.
• LSI Keywords: Defensive MVP, game-wreckers, strip-sack, pick-six, defensive touchdown.

The Offensive Skill Position Stars

Outside of the running back position, wide receivers (WRs) and tight ends (TEs) occasionally win. This usually requires a massive stat line in a high-scoring game.

• A.J. Brown (Eagles Wide Receiver): Brown had a strong 2024 season with 1,079 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns in 13 games. If Saquon Barkley is shut down, Hurts will lean heavily on Brown. A 150+ yard, 2-touchdown receiving performance would make him a strong candidate.
• Travis Kelce (Chiefs Tight End): Kelce is a playoff legend. If Mahomes needs a late-game hero, it’s Kelce. A 10-catch, 120-yard, 2-touchdown performance would be a great way for the veteran to cap off his career.
• Jared Goff (Lions QB): The Detroit Lions QB had a highly efficient 2024 regular season, setting an NFL record with nine games of a 75.0% completion percentage. If the Lions make a surprise run to the Super Bowl and win, Goff's surgical passing will be the reason, making him a major dark horse. His 2024 season stats include 4,629 yards and a 72.4% completion rate.
• LSI Keywords: Wide receiver MVP, tight end legend, surprise contender, surgical passing.

The Final Prediction: Who Takes Home the Super Bowl LIX MVP?

The Super Bowl MVP is ultimately a story-driven award, given to the player whose performance most directly led to the victory. Given the current projections and the dominant 2024 season, the award seems destined for a member of the Philadelphia Eagles or the Kansas City Chiefs. The Eagles have been cited as the projected Super Bowl Champion for the 2024 season, giving their players a slight edge.

While Patrick Mahomes is the safest bet due to his history and talent, the sheer dominance of the Eagles' running game in 2024 creates a unique scenario. If the Eagles win a close, defensive battle, Saquon Barkley is the most compelling choice, especially with his 2,000-yard season narrative. If the game is a high-scoring shootout, the award will almost certainly go to either Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen.

Our Final Prediction: The Super Bowl LIX MVP award will be won by Saquon Barkley. His historic 2024 campaign is the perfect narrative, and a powerful running performance in the Superdome would be a fitting end to the season, breaking the recent trend of quarterback dominance.

Entity List for Topical Authority: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, A.J. Brown, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Haason Reddick, Darius Slay, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Super Bowl LIX, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana, Lombardi Trophy, 2024 NFL season, AFC Championship, NFC Championship, AP NFL MVP.