5 Shocking Factors That Will Define The Next 'El Viejo Clásico' Between Real Madrid And Athletic Club

The historic rivalry known as "El Viejo Clásico" is set for its next chapter, and the stakes could not be higher. On January 10, 2026, Athletic Club will host Real Madrid at the formidable San Mamés, just over a month after their last encounter. This upcoming La Liga EA Sports fixture is far more complex than the recent 3-0 scoreline suggests, with a major defensive crisis looming over the Madrid camp and the tactical battle between Ernesto Valverde and Xabi Alonso reaching a fever pitch.

As of today, December 10, 2025, the focus shifts from Real Madrid's dominant win on December 3, 2025, to their alarming inconsistency and injury woes. This detailed analysis dives into the five most crucial factors—from personnel absences to tactical vulnerabilities—that will determine the outcome of the first major Spanish football clash of the new year.

The Historical Context: El Viejo Clásico and Head-to-Head Dominance

The fixture between Athletic Club and Real Madrid is one of the oldest and most storied rivalries in Spanish football, often affectionately dubbed "El Viejo Clásico" (The Old Classic) or "El Otro Clásico."

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This rivalry predates the famous El Clásico involving Barcelona and is built on a century of contests between two of the founding members of La Liga.

Historically, the balance of power has heavily favored the capital club, Los Blancos. Real Madrid holds a commanding lead in the all-time head-to-head record, with 125 wins against Athletic Club's 79 victories in 249 total meetings.

In the last 38 meetings alone, Real Madrid has secured 27 wins, underscoring their recent dominance over The Lions of Bilbao.

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5 Shocking Factors Defining the January 10, 2026 Clash

The upcoming match at San Mamés is poised to be a tactical and emotional rollercoaster, influenced by recent events and critical player absences.

1. Real Madrid's Catastrophic Defensive Injury Crisis

The single most defining factor for the January 10, 2026 match is the crippling injury list plaguing Real Madrid's defense.

The team is facing a severe crisis, with multiple key central and full-backs sidelined, forcing manager Xabi Alonso to improvise.

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• Dani Carvajal: Out long-term due to knee surgery, not expected back until February 2026.
• Éder Militão: Sidelined for months with a severe hamstring injury, including damage to the proximal tendon.
• David Alaba: Still recovering from a calf injury.
• Ferland Mendy: Doubtful, as he is only tentatively scheduled to return from a muscle injury around January 1, 2026.

The absence of these experienced defenders means Real Madrid's backline will be drastically weakened, offering Athletic Club their best opportunity in years to exploit a vulnerable defense at home.

2. The Mbappé-Vinícius Júnior Factor and Tactical Shift

The last meeting on December 3, 2025, saw Real Madrid secure a commanding 3-0 victory at San Mamés, largely thanks to Kylian Mbappé's two goals and one assist.

Real Madrid's tactical setup, a 4-3-1-2 mid-block, successfully utilized Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior's pace to expose Athletic Club's high defensive line.

The question for the January fixture is whether Athletic Club manager Ernesto Valverde can adapt his tactics to neutralize this potent forward line, or if the pace of the French and Brazilian stars will once again prove too much for The Lions.

3. Athletic Club's Alarming Goal Drought

While the focus is often on Real Madrid's star power, Athletic Club's own struggles are a major concern. Tactical analysis of their form leading up to the last clash indicated a significant lack of cutting edge, with only one goal scored in six recent matches at the time.

Furthermore, the team is dealing with its own injury issues in the final third, with players like Maroan Sannadi ruled out until late January with a meniscus injury.

If Athletic Club hopes to capitalize on Real Madrid's defensive crisis, key players like Iñaki Williams and Nico Williams must find their scoring boots and exploit the inexperienced center-back pairing they are likely to face.

4. Real Madrid's Post-Win Inconsistency

The 3-0 win against Athletic Club was a crucial result for Real Madrid, ending a frustrating streak of three consecutive away draws in La Liga.

However, the victory was immediately followed by a surprising 0-2 loss to Celta on December 7, 2025, demonstrating an alarming level of inconsistency in their recent form.

This 'win-loss' pattern suggests that momentum is not guaranteed for Los Blancos, making the trip to San Mamés a genuine test of their title credentials rather than a routine fixture.

5. The San Mamés Fortress Factor

Playing at the Estadio de San Mamés, often called "La Catedral," is always a massive challenge for any visiting team. The passionate home support of The Lions creates one of the most intimidating atmospheres in La Liga.

Despite the recent 0-3 loss there, the January 10, 2026 fixture will be a fresh start. Athletic Club’s ability to use the home crowd's energy to press Real Madrid high and disrupt their midfield—something they attempted but failed to execute effectively in December—will be critical.

If the home side can sustain a high-intensity press for the full 90 minutes, they can exploit the lack of cohesion in Real Madrid's injury-hit defense and turn the tide of "El Viejo Clásico."

Key Players and Match Prediction

The match will be a battle of two distinct forces: Real Madrid's world-class attack versus Athletic Club's desperate need for a statement win at home.

Real Madrid Key Entities

• Kylian Mbappé: The talisman. His form is undeniable, and his speed will be the primary threat against Athletic's high line.
• Vinícius Júnior: Provides the other half of the lethal attacking duo, crucial for creating space and assists.
• Eduardo Camavinga: A vital entity in midfield, expected to cover defensive gaps created by the injury crisis.

Athletic Club Key Entities

• Iñaki Williams: The primary attacking outlet. His pace and relentless running are key to unsettling the makeshift Madrid defense.
• Nico Williams: The younger brother, whose creativity and dribbling ability on the flanks will be essential for breaking down the opposition.
• Oihan Sancet: The creative midfielder must step up to link the midfield and attack and supply the forwards with goal-scoring opportunities.

Prediction: While Real Madrid's attacking firepower, led by Mbappé, remains formidable, their defensive crisis is too severe to ignore. The intensity of San Mamés and Athletic Club's desperation for a win will likely push this match to a much closer result than the last. Expect goals from both sides in a tightly contested affair.